Sunday, November 23, 2014

This (probably) changes everything

I'd like to share a few other random snippets from Naomi Klein's thought-provoking new book "This Changes Everything", already touched on in a previous entry.
  • The greenhouse gas emissions counting system developed in the early 1990s, in preparation for the Kyoto and other subsequent accords, specifically excludes emissions from the transportation of goods across borders, such as container ships. To put this into perspective, there has been a 400% increase in container ship traffic, one of the dirtiest and most hydrocarbon-intensive modes of transportation available, over the last 20 years, with a further doubling or even tripling expected in the next 30-35 years.
  • Although the growth in greenhouse gas emissions actually slowed from around 4.5% per year in the 1960s to around 1% per year in the 1990s, it has then increased to around 3.4% per year since 2000, with only a temporary dip during the financial crisis of 2009, followed by a rebound to a record 5.9% growth in 2010. This covers the period since the first international climate change agreements, the period during which we supposedly have actually been aware of the urgency of the issue. However, it also covers the period of the headlong escalation in the globalization of trade, and the emergence of a coal-powered China as the world major trading nation (China alone is responsible for about two-thirds of the growth in emissions).
  • After decades of privatization worldwide, in pursuit of the neoliberal agenda of free trade, small government and deregulation, a British poll in November 2013 found 68% of the general public was in favour of re-nationalizing the country's energy system (with 21% coming out against), and 66% favour re-nationalizing the railway companies (with 23% against). Even 52% of Conservative voters supported the re-nationalization of both energy and the railways. Ms. Klein makes the case that the kinds of changes needed to address global warming are not likely to happen naturally in the private sector.
  • Given the right political environment, a fossil fuel-free (and even nuclear-free) future may not be as far away as one might think. A 2012 report by the German National Centre for Aerospace, Energy and Transport Research shows how 67% of European electricity could come from renewable sources by as soon as 2030 (and 96% by 2050). A report by the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory, also in 2012, indicates that 80% of America's electricity could come from currently available renewable technologies by 2050, and a separate report by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows how wind and solar could provide 60% of the US's power by 2030. Meanwhile, a University of Melbourne report purports to demonstrate the practicability of a conversion to 100% renewable energy in Australia in just 10 years. The salient phrase here, though, is "given the right political environment": such drastic changes are not going to be brought about by market forces alone.
  • In 2013, in the USA alone, the oil and gas industry spent just under $400,000 a day lobbying Congress and government officials.
  • There are an estimated 2,795 gigatons of carbon tied up in the oil, gas and coal reserves currently owned by private and state-owned fuel companies. This is about five times estimates (565 gigatons) of the carbon that can be burned between now and 2050 and still leave a good chance of keeping global warming below the critical level of 2°C, the temperature increase limit established as the best target at the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit.
  • Just as bitumen production from oil sands has a much higher carbon footprint than that of conventional oil, fracked natural gas is at least 30% higher in emissions than conventional gas, and the procedure leaks methane at every stage in the process (methane is an estimated 34 times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide). In fact, gas from fracking, often touted as a plentiful, low-carbon alternative fuel to oil and coal and the ideal "bridging" fuel, may have just as much of a warming impact as coal over an extended life cycle. The other drawback is that cheap natural gas is just as likely to squeeze out potential renewable fuels as it is to replace dirtier fossil fuels.
  • The number of rail cars carrying oil in the USA has increased by over 4000% in just five years, from 9,500 in 2008 to about 400,000 in 2013. More oil was spilled in US rail incidents in 2013 than in the previous 40 years combined. In 2012, there were more than 6,000 spills and "other mishaps" at onshore oil and gas sites in the USA.
"This Changes Everything" is thick, densely written, unabashedly partisan and radical in spirit, and, in the main, rather depressing fare, I have to say. However, it is well-written, up to date, and meticulously researched, and gives some added legitimacy to a rabble-rousing view of the climate debate.
In the end, Ms. Klein concludes that there is still time to redress the problem of climate change, through an escalation of activism and resistance and what she describes as a "Marshall Plan for the Earth". Indeed, she sees it as an opportunity and a means of rectifying many other festering wrongs and inequalities in the world. But her conclusions are almost lost and overshadowed by the sheer grimness of the analysis and the litany of grievances that precede them.
If I were to cavil, I was perhaps a little disappointed at Ms. Klein's almost complete ignoring of energy conservation as a major and necessary plank in the push for a solution to the global warming problem. But the book remains a welcome addition and an indispensable resource for anyone interested in the issue.

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